In 2022, millions of Ukrainians crossed into neighboring countries with hopes of returning home soon. Four years later, many have settled elsewhere. Despite a potential peace agreement to end the war, Ukraine’s migration crisis could persist.
The Center for Economic Strategy reports around 5.6 million Ukrainians remain abroad due to the ongoing war. Eurostat states over 4.4 million Ukrainians had temporary protection in EU nations by July. These figures reflect lives moved forward despite the conflict. Children started school locally, parents secured jobs, and families integrated into new communities. Displacement meant to be short-term has transformed into enriched lives abroad.
A significant number of Ukrainians still yearn to return home. Research by the Center for Economic Strategy shows 43% of refugees intend to return, but 36% do not. Among those planning to go back, 80% wish to wait until safety is assured. The distinction matters greatly. For many, the choice will be about family welfare rather than sentimentality. A mother may want to return, but her child might now be fluent in a foreign language. A parent may miss home but finds stability in their foreign career. Returning could mean rebuilding from scratch.
The end of the war won’t resolve the refugee issue by itself. Peace can’t restore the pre-2022 lives. Priorities, like housing, jobs, schools, healthcare, and security, become key factors. Moreover, the belief in a future within Ukraine contributes to decisions. The undecided individuals could influence Ukraine’s future greatly. If they see improved living conditions, many may opt to move back. Conversely, if they face instability and limited prospects, staying abroad could be wiser.
Ukraine should also consider that not everyone will return. Such isn’t necessarily a failure. Those abroad can still engage with their home country through financial support, business investments, and professional contributions. Ukraine may gain a larger, globally-connected diaspora post-war.
The government can’t enforce repatriation, but it can shape conducive conditions for informed decisions. Initiatives should focus on safeguarding property rights, expanding reconstruction and housing programs, creating job opportunities, and offering training. Reliable information on security, education, healthcare, and employment needs to reach Ukrainians abroad. The aim is to enable a feasible option for those seeking return.
The distinction between persuading all to return and providing them realistic choices affects Ukraine and its allies, including the U.S. and European partners. The post-war population will drive recovery, economic vitality, democratic strength, and security.
Kateryna Odarchenko, the president of the PolitA Institute for Democracy and Development, political consultant, partner of SIC Group Ukraine, and member of the International Association of Political Consultants contributed insights to this analysis.
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