The race for the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire is drawing closer as Democrat Chris Pappas sees his lead over Republican John E. Sununu decrease. Midterm elections are approaching fast, with just about four weeks until voting day. Recent data from Rasmussen Reports shows Pappas leading with 49% versus Sununu’s 44%. This margin has narrowed since last month when Pappas had an 11-point edge, with 45% to Sununu’s 34%.
Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen is retiring, offering an open seat in the upcoming November general election. Currently, the Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up. Midterms are often perceived as reflective of the current political climate, particularly affecting the party in power, as history shows the president’s party tends to lose seats during these elections. Presently, Republicans maintain a narrow majority in both congressional chambers.
In 2024, Kamala Harris secured New Hampshire by a margin of less than 3% over Donald Trump. The state hasn’t elected a Republican senator in more than 15 years. Newsweek has attempted to reach out to both campaigns for comments.
What To Know About the New Poll
This new poll also reveals that 3% would favor Constitution Party candidate Edmond Laplante, while 4% are undecided. Among Democrats, Pappas garners 89% of votes, 15% of the Republican vote, and 40% from non-affiliated voters. Sununu has managed to gain 84% of Republican support, 8% of Democratic votes, and 44% of unaffiliated voters’ support.
Pappas holds a significant lead among women, with 53% backing him compared to Sununu’s 33%. Conversely, Sununu has support from 53% of men, compared to 42% for Pappas. Voters over 65 favor Pappas with 58%. Meanwhile, Sununu, who represented New Hampshire in the Senate from 2003 to 2009, leads with those under 40 years old.
The survey, conducted from October 2 to October 4, involved 979 likely voters in New Hampshire and has a margin of error of 3%. AllSides, a news-rating website, categorizes Rasmussen Reports as “Lean Right,” indicating a moderate alignment with conservative thought.
Craig Agranoff, a political professor at Florida Atlantic University, remarked that Republicans have a narrow path in New Hampshire. He noted the reduction of Pappas’ lead in the Rasmussen poll aligns with the Cook’s toss-up rating. The political landscape, ticket splitting, and external funding provide GOP a viable opportunity in this race.
What Other Polls Show
A University of New Hampshire survey shows Pappas at 50% and Sununu at 42%, with 2% supporting Laplante and 4% undecided. This poll, conducted mid-September among 1,418 likely voters, has a margin of error of 2.6%.
In August, a different poll had Sununu slightly ahead with 45% to Pappas’ 43%. The results fell within the margin of error, making the race statistically even. A September poll by co/efficient showed a deadlock at 46%, with 9% undecided. Pappas’ favorability stood at 37%, with a 51% unfavorable rating, while Sununu had a 41% favorability and 47% unfavorable rating.
The co/efficient poll had a margin of error of 3.15%, surveyed 958 likely voters in New Hampshire. Both campaigns continue to strategize as election day draws near.
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