President Donald Trump has recently focused on opposing Republican senators who have not supported him. This has been described as a “revenge tour” by his aides. His strategy includes endorsing challengers to incumbents who have voted against him, as well as supporting candidates aligned with Make America Great Again (MAGA) in important races before this year’s midterm elections.
If Justices Samuel Alito or Clarence Thomas of the U.S. Supreme Court retire before the end of the year, Trump would need to nominate a replacement for Senate confirmation. Political analysts consulted by Newsweek believe the president currently lacks the necessary votes for confirmation.
Rumors about Alito’s potential retirement have been circulating, particularly after his March hospitalization for dehydration, his upcoming book release in October, and discussions about his judicial legacy. Trump’s endorsements have led to tensions with some Republican senators, whose votes would be essential for any Supreme Court confirmation.
Key Republican Votes
Senator Susan Collins of Maine is seeking reelection in a state that has shown Democratic tendencies. Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska overcame a Trump-supported primary opponent in 2022. In the past, both senators have shown hesitation in supporting conservative Supreme Court nominees.
Trump’s endorsements also impact three other Republican senators crucial to Supreme Court confirmations. Jim Kessler of Third Way, a centrist think tank, noted, “Revenge is a two-way street.” He points out that politicians targeted by Trump either conclude their careers or position themselves for a potential comeback by opposing Trump.
Senator John Cornyn of Texas, who previously chaired the Senate Judiciary Committee responsible for vetting Supreme Court nominees, faced a Trump-endorsed state Attorney General Ken Paxton in the May 26 Texas Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate. Senator Collins expressed disapproval of Trump’s decision to support Paxton over Cornyn, describing Paxton as “ethically challenged” and Cornyn as “an outstanding senator who deserved the president’s support.”
In 2025, Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina announced he would not seek reelection in 2026. With no future campaign concerns, Tillis opposed Trump on Iran war powers and resisted several administration judicial nominees.
Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana lost his primary on May 16 to a Trump-endorsed opponent. Trump had supported Julia Letlow, referring to Cassidy as “a sleazebag” and “terrible for Louisiana.” Cassidy voted with Collins and Murkowski to initiate a Senate debate on Trump’s Iran war. He also opposed White House ballroom funding in the budget bill.
Given these positions, Kessler concludes, “People like Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins were already going to be a no on any Supreme Court justice because Collins is up for reelection and Murkowski will be soon. With Tom Tillis as well, the votes are not there.”
Mathematical Challenges
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats. With all Democrats expected to vote no, Trump requires 50 Republican votes for confirmation, meaning only three Republicans can vote against. If Murkowski, Collins, and Tillis defect, adding Cassidy—who faced consequences for voting against Trump—the confirmation would fail.
This scenario seemed unlikely a few months ago. Political dynamics, once favoring Republicans, have shifted. Previously confident Republicans fear Democrats could gain the four Senate seats needed to take control. Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist, emphasized this change, saying, “A year ago, nobody believed Democrats would be close to a Senate majority. Now it’s a toss-up.”
On Supreme Court confirmations, political forces exert diverse pressures. Justice retirements would require Trump to keep the GOP united. The four Republican senators opposing him would be in positions to block any nomination.
Trump’s approval ratings are weak in critical Senate battlegrounds. He faces a -17 net approval in Maine, -14 in Michigan, and -3 in Texas. Matt Klink, president of Klink Campaigns, warned, “The danger for Republicans is that Trump’s approval becomes the emotional first impression voters use in unfamiliar races.”
Potential Retirements
Trump has publicly expressed readiness to nominate justices if vacancies arise. In April, he mentioned his preparedness to nominate two or three justices, citing Senator Ted Cruz and Judge Aileen Cannon as possibilities.
Despite speculation, Alito and Thomas have indicated intentions to remain on the bench. Alito hired clerks for the coming term, and Thomas expressed enjoyment in his work. Neither has shown plans to retire. Speculation on Alito’s retirement circulates within conservative legal circles. His upcoming book release after the new term’s start and March hospitalization raised questions about his future. Shifts in Democratic Senate prospects by 2027 add uncertainty.
Though Trump indicates readiness to nominate, the current political climate suggests a conservative nominee could face hurdles in gaining confirmation if either justice steps down.
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