A recent Marist poll shows Democrat Josh Turek leading Republican Ashley Hinson in Iowa’s Senate election. This competitive race resembles conditions from the Democrats’ last statewide Senate victory 18 years ago.
According to the poll, 50% of registered voters in Iowa support Turek, while Hinson has 42% support. The survey, conducted from September 17 to 20, involved 1,050 registered voters contacted through phone, text, or online. Turek and Hinson are contesting to succeed retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst, a race crucial to determining U.S. Senate control.
Shortly before the poll’s release, Hinson distanced herself from President Donald Trump by calling for an end to the Iran war. In September of the previous year, Trump endorsed Hinson. The last Democratic win in an Iowa Senate election was 18 years ago when Senator Tom Harkin defeated Republican Christopher Reed. Since then, Republicans Joni Ernst and Chuck Grassley have controlled Iowa’s Senate seats.
This year’s midterm elections could influence the House and Senate’s control, as Republican candidates face economic, inflation, rising fuel costs, and Iran war-related concerns. Iowa, a state with a mixed history of voting for both parties in presidential elections, presents a competitive political environment. Although Trump won Iowa in the last three cycles, President Barack Obama previously won twice. On Tuesday, prediction market Polymarket labeled the Iowa election a toss-up, with Turek having a 48% chance of winning.
The political atmosphere draws parallels with the 2008 election, marked by national economic anxiety. Economic concerns today involve the Iran war, tariffs, and fuel costs, heavily impacting Iowa farmers, a key economic sector. Iowa Democratic Party spokesperson Drew Myers criticized Hinson to Newsweek, claiming: “Ashley Hinson is losing this race because Iowans are sick and tired of corrupt D.C. politicians who hurt Iowa to benefit themselves and their donors.” Myers also accused Hinson of profiting while raising essential costs.
Reacting to political pressure, Hinson called for a “successful and immediate end” to the Iran war on a post, proposing relief measures and policies to alleviate high costs affecting Iowans. In another post, Turek criticized Hinson’s past votes to continue the war and expressed determination to put Iowa first by ending “forever wars.”
The Iran conflict recalls the 2008 political climate, during which the Iraq War significantly influenced the election. Unlike the ground invasion in Iraq, U.S. involvement in Iran has been limited. In 2008, Harkin, an experienced incumbent, competed in a general election, not a midterm.
As the November 3 election date nears, more polls may emerge, offering further insight into Turek’s current lead. Both campaigns are expected to increase efforts to connect with voters. The race between Hinson and Turek is set to be one of the midterms’ most competitive contests.
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