The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a significant focus for President Donald Trump. It is crucial for the global economy, as 20% of the world’s oil has historically passed through this strait. However, reaching an agreement with Iran may require Trump to make concessions, a move that could challenge his usual approach.
Any concession is challenging for Trump, a president who often categorizes outcomes in terms of winners and losers. Eliot Cohen, a former State Department advisor under George W. Bush, stated, “He divides the world between winners and losers, and this would make him a loser.” The image of losing is particularly unacceptable for Trump.
The current tension revolves around control over the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the proximity to an agreement, the Trump administration has refused any arrangement that lets Iran maintain control, including charging passage fees. Nonetheless, Iran insists on retaining some level of control, arguing that the strait will not revert to its previous status as an open international waterway.
Trump faces pressure because of the war’s effect on gas prices and the upcoming midterm elections. David Schenker, a former State Department official, suggested that economic pressures might force Trump to concede, considering the global trade implications. Schenker, now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, remarked, “This is a concession he might be willing to make.”
Weapons reserves have received attention amidst the conflict. Trump claims the U.S. military still has “massive” weapon stockpiles and announced ongoing production, threatening jail time for leaks about arms inventory. A report by The Washington Post revealed Trump’s frustration with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over reduced advanced weapons inventory.
Military experts note a shortage of advanced missile interceptors, crucial against Iranian attacks. The Center for Strategic and International Studies highlighted declining reserves based on public records. Trump acknowledged a need for more weapons during a media interaction, emphasizing ongoing stockpiling and international supply access if necessary.
Secretary Hegseth recently met Republican senators, advocating for increased Pentagon funds within a Republican budget plan. Democratic Senator Mark Kelly criticized the war’s unclear strategy, stating it led to excessive weapon use and losses. He noted, “If the objectives were clear, target numbers might have been significantly lower.”
Trump also asserted that his poll numbers were the best ever, crediting economic achievements and efforts over Iran. Despite this claim, a poll by The Associated Press-NORC in late July revealed that almost two-thirds of Americans question the war’s value, including a substantial portion of Republicans.
While Trump states the Strait of Hormuz remains “more or less open,” recent incidents highlighted ongoing threats. Two tankers were hit last week, with others facing warnings from alleged Iranian entities. Vessel transits across the strait increased, though significantly below pre-crisis levels, as per Lloyd’s List Intelligence data.
An agreement regarding Hormuz could hinge on whether tolls are imposed. U.S. and Iranian officials indicate progress towards a deal, facilitating entry via a route controlled by Iran and exit via one managed by Oman. The temporary solution avoids tolls, according to a U.S. official.
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