The Central Election Commission (CEC) of Russia announced that the United Russia party, closely associated with President Vladimir Putin, won a record 355 seats in the 450-seat State Duma. This triumph surpasses the previous record set in 2016 when the party secured 343 seats. Reports of ballot stuffing, malfunctioning voting machines, and questionable turnout figures marked the election amidst inflation, new U.S. sanctions, and Russia’s struggling wartime economy. The ruling party dominated with almost 58 percent of the party-list vote and controlled single-member districts.
Sergei Guriev, a former rector at Moscow’s New Economic School and advisor to Dmitry Medvedev, told Newsweek that Putin could use this election result as a mandate to continue his aggressive policies in Ukraine. He suggested that Putin might interpret the result as a sign that Russians are prepared to withstand economic challenges for the sake of war. Guriev noted, “Putin already said that the war is not free; it is costly.” As the dean of London Business School and a Kremlin critic, Guriev believes Putin could misinterpret the election outcomes as support for his war aims.
There is speculation that the election might lead to a mass mobilization of troops to bolster Moscow’s faltering efforts in Ukraine. Kyiv warns of possible troop deployment to recoup Russian losses, reportedly amounting to 1,000 daily. Although the Kremlin has denied imminent mobilization plans, a digital infrastructure was established to streamline troop recruitment and restrict escape routes. Reports indicate that Russian officials are relocating assets abroad and advising relatives to leave Russia amid fears of being drafted.
Guriev emphasized the economic implications: facing a growing budget deficit and record military spending, Putin might resort to conscription. He highlighted the associated political costs and the possibility that Russians might mistakenly appear amenable to a draft. However, Guriev warned that Putin’s information might be inaccurate.
Yabloko, an anti-war party initially permitted to run, was disqualified by the Russian Supreme Court due to alleged violations, leading to accusations of election irregularities. United Russia’s 8 percentage point increase from 2021 and official turnout of almost 60 percent were met with skepticism. Farida Rustamova questioned the unrealistic turnout, noting it lacked genuine campaigning.
Results suggest that United Russia will be joined by four other parties: the Communist Party with 40 seats, Liberal Democratic Party with 25 seats, New People with 20 seats, and A Just Russia with four seats. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov asserted that the election results affirm support for Putin’s foreign policy.
Russian political scientist Tatiana Stanovaya argued that Putin might view the election outcome as endorsement for his war, ignoring rising anti-war sentiments. She noted the absence of significant support for the Greens, a party that could attract Yabloko’s voters.
Economically, the war poses issues for Putin. Guriev highlighted concerns over stagnation expressed by German Gref, head of Sberbank. Andrei Klepach, VEB’s chief economist, was dismissed after analyzing Russia’s economic standing. Repeated Ukrainian drone strikes have impacted Russia’s economy, exacerbating public concerns.
Guriev remarked that these shifts in sentiment could empower individuals around Putin to express doubts publicly. Increased criticism might hint at political maneuvering, anticipating an end to Putin’s rule. Guriev concluded with a metaphor, implying internal conflict among Russian officials about the war.
Readers are encouraged to contact Newsweek editors Matthew Robinson and Shakeema Edwards for further details.
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