State Representative Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist, is in a close race against Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. Crowley, the favored candidate of the party establishment, leads Hong by around 2,000 votes, or 0.4 percent, with 98 percent counted as of 2 a.m. local time. Both candidates await final ballots before planning further actions. In a margin under 1 percent, recounts can be initiated.
An election delay occurred due to an issue with roughly 28,000 absentee ballots in Milwaukee. Paulina Gutiérrez, Milwaukee Election Commission’s executive director, cited “human error” for the delay in results, expected early Wednesday.
Hong addressed supporters late Tuesday, stating, “We have built something that will change politics forever. The work we have done will be remembered forever. I know we don’t have the final results right now, but what I do know is we are ready to keep fighting.” The Crowley campaign remarked, “We feel optimistic, but it’s not over until the votes are counted,” early Wednesday.
The primary winner will face Republican U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany in November. This election will test progressive appeal in a key battleground state. Democrats aim to leverage low approval ratings for President Donald Trump, hoping to hold the governor’s office and flip the Legislature for the first time since 2010.
Crowded Field Narrowed to Two
Democratic Governor Tony Evers’ choice not to run for a third term led to an initial crowded race. Tiffany, with Trump’s support, won the Republican primary with little resistance. The Democratic contest is now between Hong and Crowley.
Crowley reentered the race shortly after dropping out, following Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez’s withdrawal amid a finance scandal. Evers later endorsed Crowley, concerning establishment Democrats about Hong’s potential November challenge against Tiffany, given moderate voter preferences in Wisconsin.
Though Hong has mobilized left-wing supporters, she lacks endorsements from prominent progressives like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Bernie Sanders. Ocasio-Cortez, focused on broader Congressional wins, expressed her reasons on ABC’s This Week for not endorsing Hong.
How the Polls Underestimated Crowley
Polling greatly underestimated Crowley. Public surveys projected Hong as a frontrunner. Navigate’s final survey, with 1,473 likely Democratic voters from August 3 to 6, showed Hong at a 22-point lead. Hong had 44 percent support, Crowley 22 percent, with a margin of error of 2.3 percentage points.
Other polls, including five from Marquette University Law School, likewise showed Hong leading. The most recent survey, conducted among 407 voters between July 22 and 27, placed Hong at 38 percent, Mandela Barnes at 16 percent, and Crowley at 7 percent, with 34 percent undecided.
This remains a developing story. More updates will follow.
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