The rapid advancement of the Yemeni Ansar Allah movement, also referred to as the Houthis, has strategically positioned a strong Iranian ally in control of Yemen’s Red Sea coast. This shift has introduced a critical maritime corridor into the sphere of influence of the Axis of Resistance.
The Bab el-Mandeb strait is located between Yemen’s southwest and Djibouti in East Africa. This strait connects the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, which extends to the Mediterranean Sea through the Suez Canal. At its narrowest point, it measures only 16 miles wide. Ansar Allah has previously demonstrated their ability to disrupt global shipping from considerable distances.
With Saudi-supported Yemeni government forces retreating, a potential blockade enforced through Ansar Allah’s missiles and drones could interrupt the transit of about 8.1 million barrels per day of crude oil, condensate, and petroleum products. This amount represents approximately 10% of global maritime oil trade. The significance of the Bab el-Mandeb has grown due to its role as an alternative shipping route amidst Iran’s restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz, following hostilities initiated by the United States and Israel on February 28.
A Triple Threat to Trade
Yemeni analyst Hisham al-Omeisy indicated that Ansar Allah fighters do not need to fully close the Bab el-Mandeb to have a substantial impact. “They only need to make it dangerous enough so that shipping companies perceive the risk as too high,” which might result in “higher insurance costs, ships taking longer routes around Africa, increased delivery times, and ultimately higher prices.”
This threat intensifies when considering the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz. “If Iran can exert pressure on Hormuz while the Houthis threaten Bab el-Mandeb, there is effectively pressure on both sides of the Arabian Peninsula simultaneously,” Omeisy explained.
The Bab el-Mandeb accommodates 10% of global oil transport and 8% of global gas trade by sea. It was previously a significant route for about 30% of worldwide container traffic, as noted by Nitya Labh at Chatham House’s International Security Program. “Since Hormuz’s restricted passage, nations like Saudi Arabia have rerouted some oil exports from the Gulf to the Red Sea using overland pipelines, enhancing the Red Sea’s importance in global energy markets,” Labh added.
Despite alterations in export routes, overland pathways face vulnerability due to conflict. Reports have shown that Ansar Allah attacks have damaged Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline connecting Abqaiq to Yanbu.
The Red Sea crisis also jeopardizes the Suez Canal. Labh described it as “the final viable shipping route through the Middle Eastern region.” By launching its initial offensive against Red Sea trade following the October 2023 war outbreak in Gaza, the Ansar Allah movement caused traffic through the vital waterway to drop by over two-thirds.
The Axis Surrounds Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is facing substantial threats, with pressures from Iran in the east, its ally the Islamic Resistance in Iraq to the north, and Ansar Allah positioned to the south and west. The peril on the Yemeni front is pronounced as Ansar Allah pursues open conflict with the kingdom.
Journalist Hussein Albukhaiti noted that Saudi Arabia’s attempted interventions, alongside the U.S. and Pakistan, could lead Ansar Allah to “close the Red Sea to shipping from these nations, whether military or commercial.” Albukhaiti stressed that Ansar Allah might go further by “launching a major attack against Saudi Arabia.” Targets could include energy infrastructure and strategic locations in Najran, Jizan, and Asir, among others.
Ansar Allah has launched multiple strikes against southern Saudi cities and energy facilities. Saudi aerial assaults have also been reported across western Yemen. The intervention began in 2015, when Saudi Arabia reacted to Ansar Allah’s capture of Yemen’s capital, which forced the government to exile. Prior to Yemen’s latest conflict escalation, territorial lines were mostly static due to an April 2022 U.N.-backed ceasefire.
Recent regional tensions arose from the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran. The situation worsened when Ansar Allah claimed Riyadh conducted strikes on Sanaa Airport in July. Subsequently, as Ansar Allah promised to disrupt Israeli access to the Red Sea, they threatened Saudi Arabia’s trade routes.
Yemen’s War Turns Global
The Yemeni government’s defeat is not certain. Historically, the government has reversed unfavorable situations with aid from Riyadh. For instance, in January, after rapid territorial losses to the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council, government forces regained areas via a counteroffensive supported by Saudi Arabia.
With increasing adverse conditions for Saudi Arabia, Omeisy highlighted the grave repercussions for regional security, trade freedom, and energy markets. “Supporting the Yemeni government in securing its Red Sea coast transcends Yemen’s internal struggles,” as Omeisy noted. “It connects directly to overall navigation freedom, energy security, and global trade stability.”
Much relies on whether government forces can promptly reorganize, create defense positions, and plan a successful counteroffensive. Saudi efforts to gain U.S. air support recently faced denial, adding strain. Sherwan Hindreen Ali from ACLED cautioned, “The Saudis simply don’t have many options now, and each option carries risks for the kingdom.”
The Saudis could escalate military engagement, which may invite further Houthi strikes on Saudi energy sites. Considering the increase in Houthi weapon sophistication and Saudi interceptor missile shortages due to the U.S.-Iran conflict, an escalation could have serious consequences.
Alternatively, Saudi Arabia might decide concessions are necessary, such as ending the Yemen blockade. Yet this could bolster Ansar Allah with Iranian assistance, posing enduring risks to global shipping.
The heightened tension influences energy-dependent nations seeking resolution, which benefits Iran and its allies. Labh remarked that “the Houthis and Iran can essentially hold the global economy hostage, impacting negotiations.” More countries might press for the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Israel to conclude these military endeavors to ease global economic strain.
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