Polls, betting odds, and election forecasts suggest that Mike Lindell faces a tough challenge in winning Minnesota’s Republican primary. If Lindell, the CEO of MyPillow, secures the nomination, he will also confront long odds in the general election. Known for supporting Donald Trump’s false claims about a stolen 2020 election, Lindell declared his candidacy for governor in December 2025. This move followed renewed attention on allegations of fraud in Minnesota’s welfare programs in early 2026.
In January, sitting Governor Tim Walz announced he would not pursue a third term, changing the dynamics of the race and broadening the candidate pool among Democrats and Republicans. Minnesota’s primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026. Lindell’s campaign claims internal polling indicates a potential win in the Republican primary. Nevertheless, other data portrays a competitive and unpredictable primary landscape. This reflects the fractured state of the GOP field and highlights the hurdles any Republican nominee faces in a state that generally favors Democrats.
Republican Primary Polling and Betting Odds
There is a scarcity of independent polling on the Minnesota GOP primary, resulting in an uncertain voter sentiment. A May poll by Lindell’s campaign, conducted by Big Data Poll, suggested Lindell could claim the primary with 21.3% of the vote, slightly ahead of Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth, who polled at 19.4%. This survey, featuring 1,236 registered voters, was conducted from May 18 to May 20 and has a margin of error of ±2.8 percentage points.
The poll indicated that if Trump endorsed Lindell, his support could climb to 35.9%, with Demuth trailing at 13.9%. However, Trump has not formally endorsed any candidate in this race. Campaign polls like these lack independent verification. The only available independent survey—conducted by Peak Insights from January 31 to February 1—showed Lindell at 18% and Demuth at 17%, with other candidates scoring in the low teens or single digits.
Prediction markets propose different outcomes. Polymarket suggests Demuth is likely to win the GOP primary, assigning her about 64% odds compared to Lindell’s 22%. On Kalshi, Demuth holds an estimated 60% chance of victory, versus Lindell’s 20%.
Mike Lindell’s General Election Prospects
If Lindell advances through the GOP primary, he will likely face notable challenges in the general election, according to polls and previous election outcomes. Since 2006, Republicans have not won a statewide office in Minnesota. The state last supported a Republican presidential candidate in 1972, though recent election margins have been narrow. Kamala Harris carried Minnesota by roughly 4 percentage points in 2024, Joe Biden by about 7 points in 2020, and Hillary Clinton by less than 2 points in 2016.
Early February polling underscores Republican hurdles. An Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters showed Democratic candidate Senator Amy Klobuchar leading Lindell 52.5% to 31.5% in a hypothetical matchup. A SurveyUSA poll of 575 registered voters displayed a similar trend, with Klobuchar ahead 52% to 32%.
Forecasters largely agree on Democrats’ advantage in the gubernatorial race. The Cook Political Report categorizes the contest as Solid Democratic, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball marked it as Safe Democratic.
Recent Developments
National focus on Minnesota has grown amid a significant welfare fraud investigation involving the nonprofit Feeding Our Future, costing taxpayers about $250 million. This has intensified state political tensions, drawing further national interest in Minnesota’s governance and policy discussions.
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