Cori Bush, a former Congress member known for her progressive stance, aims to return to politics in Missouri. She’s challenging Representative Wesley Bell, who defeated her in a primary in 2024. Missouri voters will vote on August 4 during the statewide primaries leading up to November’s midterm elections. This election will test the progressive movement again, following victories in cities like New York City, Philadelphia, and Denver.
Rematch in Missouri’s 1st District
In Missouri’s 1st District, voters will witness a rematch between Bell, a moderate, and Bush, who served from 2021 to 2025 and is known as a committed progressive. Bell, a local prosecutor, unseated Bush in the previous election. The race saw significant external funding, with substantial support from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)’s United Democracy Project. Bell criticized Bush for voting against former President Joe Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure bill.
Current Political Climate
Bush’s supporters hope the political environment has shifted since 2024. Many Democratic voters have grown frustrated with the party’s handling of former President Donald Trump. In recent primaries, voters have often chosen progressive candidates over long-standing incumbents. This primary will indicate the Democratic electorate’s mood ahead of the midterms.
Polling and Prediction Markets
Polling for the district focuses on a single internal poll from Bush’s campaign. This HIT Strategies poll shows Bell slightly ahead, with 44 percent support compared to Bush’s 40 percent. Seventeen percent remain undecided. It also found that Bush is viewed more favorably at 52 percent compared to Bell’s 45 percent.
Prediction markets currently favor Bell to win the primary. Kalshi predicts a 59 percent chance for Bell and 40 percent for Bush. This is a shift from the previous month when Bush had a 53 percent chance. Polymarket estimates Bell’s chance at 64 percent. These markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes, reflecting trader sentiment at specific times.
Future Prospects in the District
The primary winner is expected to win in November, as the district ranks among the most Democratic in the nation. In 2024, Trump lost the district by almost 58 points.
Progressive Support for Bush
Bush has gained backing from key progressive figures and groups. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Michigan Representative Rashida Tlaib support her. Justice Democrats is also behind her campaign. Conversely, Bell has support from House leadership, including Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and again from AIPAC, which labels him as a “Pro-Israel Incumbent.”
Reflection on the 2024 Election
In 2024, Bell defeated Bush in one of the most expensive House primaries. AIPAC spent over $8 million against Bush, whose opposition to U.S. military aid to Israel was a key issue. This year, Bush criticizes Bell’s support from AIPAC as views on Israel evolve. A Pew Research Center survey indicates that while 58 percent of Democrats viewed Israeli people favorably in 2024, only 43 percent do now. Favorability towards the Israeli government among Democrats has fallen from 24 percent to 16 percent.
“We’re in a fight for our lives, our rights and our democracy, and St. Louis lacks a fighter in Washington,” Bush stated in a campaign ad, highlighting her congressional achievements.
Bell dismisses Bush as “not a serious candidate,” emphasizing his commitment to working daily for St. Louis residents. Both Bush and Bell have roots in the Black Lives Matter movement, Bush as an activist and Bell as a prosecuting attorney and former Ferguson City Council member.
Progressive Wins in Recent Primaries
Recently, progressives have achieved significant primary victories. In New York, Claire Valdez won a seat previously held by Representative Nydia Velázquez. Other incumbents have also fallen to progressive challengers. Brad Lander won against Representative Dan Goldman, and Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated Representative Adriano Espaillat.
In Colorado, Melat Kiros defeated Representative Diana DeGette. Justice Democrat-backed candidates such as Chris Rabb, Adam Hamawy, and Frederick Haynes III also claimed victories in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Texas, respectively. These candidates are strong favorites for the general election, as they run in predominantly Democratic districts.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Gabe Whisnant and Dave Siminoff.
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