Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly emerged as their parties’ nominees for Florida governor on Tuesday. This sets up a general election where Republicans traditionally expect to win. Florida has leaned right in recent years, with Donald Trump winning the state by about 13 points in 2024, and Governor Ron DeSantis being re-elected by nearly 20 points in 2022.
Republicans hold a significant registration advantage over Democrats. The state’s redrawn congressional map also favors the GOP. This gives Donalds a presumed advantage. However, polling indicates Jolly might make the race more competitive than history suggests.
No Democrat has won the Florida governorship in over 25 years. Yet, Democrats are hopeful for an upset. Donalds secured 49 percent in his primary, while Jolly won nearly 62 percent. The Associated Press called both races at 8 p.m. ET. Jolly expressed confidence, telling CNN, “If the election were tonight, we would win the general election in Florida as a Democratic candidate.” He emphasized the potential for change, saying voters are eager for it.
“The cycle is presenting an opportunity where voters are just screaming for change.” – David Jolly
What Polls Show
A University of North Florida survey last month showed Donalds leading with 46 percent to Jolly’s 41 percent. This five-point lead falls short of typical Republican margins in recent state elections. The poll highlighted that 5 percent preferred another candidate, 2 percent wouldn’t vote, and 6 percent were undecided.
Among non-party affiliated voters, Donalds had a narrow one-point lead, 39 percent to 38 percent. The survey included 848 likely midterm voters in Florida from July 8 to July 17, 2026, with a margin of error of 3.8 percent. Other polls, such as a Targoz Market Research poll for the James Madison Institute, showed Donalds ahead by 7 points.
In this poll, Donalds led with 45 percent against Jolly’s 38 percent, while 17 percent were either undecided or preferred another option. This survey polled 1,026 likely voters from July 20 to July 26, 2026. A Stetson University poll also had similar results, with Donalds leading Jolly by 7 percent and a margin of error of 4.1 percent.
Craig Agranoff, political science professor at Florida Atlantic University, emphasized that while an upset would be challenging, midterms often have higher opposition turnout. Local issues could sway the results. He added, “The fundamentals favor Republicans holding the seat, but a closer race is possible if independents lean hard or economic issues dominate.”
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are optimistic about Donalds. These markets consistently show him as the favorite, reflecting Florida’s Republican leanings and Donalds’ strengths in fundraising and name recognition. On Kalshi, Republicans have an 83 percent chance of winning, with Democrats at 21 percent. On Polymarket, Republicans have an 83 percent chance compared to Democrats’ 18 percent.
Donalds has Trump’s endorsement and a national profile. Jolly faces the difficult task of winning statewide as a Democrat where his party has struggled. The difference between polling and prediction markets is significant. While polls show Jolly close, markets see defeating Donalds as a long shot.
Meanwhile, The Cook Political Report rates the race as a Solid Republican pickup. Despite challenges, Democrats see potential. They’ve had recent successes in special elections, including upsets in districts Trump won. While these don’t directly translate to a gubernatorial victory, they show Republican strength isn’t absolute.
Jolly stands out as a Democratic nominee. As a former Republican congressman, he has a moderate profile that could appeal to independents and dissatisfied Republicans. For Jolly to win, he must overcome Florida’s Republican tilt and Donalds’ lead in polls. This requires Democrats rallying behind him, winning a significant share of independents, and possibly convincing some Republicans to cross party lines.
The five-point UNF margin suggests such a scenario is possible but challenging. Currently, Donalds remains the clear favorite. If Jolly narrows the gap and gains a polling lead, Florida’s 2026 governor’s race could become a major national focus.
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