This fall, colleges in the U.S. are welcoming the third cohort admitted since the Supreme Court ended race-conscious admissions. As the effects of this decision start to become visible, understanding these changes becomes more challenging. A recent study discovered that the proportion of first-year students with an ‘unknown’ race or ethnicity increased from 3.3% before the ruling to 4% in 2024. Ivy Plus institutions and Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) recorded larger increases.
While this overall increase is modest, it complicates efforts to gauge whether educational opportunities are expanding or narrowing. Public discourse often centers on enrollment changes at a select group of highly competitive colleges. To offer a more comprehensive view, the Lumina Foundation collaborated with admissions expert James Murphy from Class Action to produce two reports addressing this issue.
Enrollment Shifts Across Institutions
The first report examines enrollment changes across over 3,000 institutions. The second, published in June, analyzes the rise in first-year students with unreported race or ethnicity and its implications. Murphy analyzed federal data from over 3,000 institutions, involving more than 3.5 million first-time enrollments. Ivy Plus institutions faced a 4.33 percentage point drop in underrepresented students of color, equating to a nearly 19% decline. Black student enrollment decreased by 25%, and Hispanic enrollment fell by roughly 15%.
Conversely, state flagship universities saw an 8% increase in students of color enrollment. White and Asian American enrollments mostly remained stable across different institutions, except for a rise in Asian American enrollment at Ivy Plus schools. Murphy refers to this as a ‘cascade effect,’ where declines in highly selective schools correlate with rises in less selective ones. Although the data does not specify where students would have enrolled prior to the ruling, it prompts consideration of their future outcomes if they attend less established institutions.
Understanding ‘Unknown’ Entries
The discussion shifts to clarifying who is enrolling, rather than simply where they enroll. The rise in first-year students with unreported races reached 4% in 2024. Over 95% of students still reported their ethnicity, but discrepancies exist. Ivy Plus institutions saw non-reporting rise from 3.2% to 5.8%, and HBCUs from 3.2% to 4.9%. Public four-year colleges and state flagships showed the least increase. Only about 25% of schools experienced a rise of more than 1 percentage point in non-reporting.
Additional analysis of 115 colleges with data on applications, admissions, and enrollment found a 0.7 percentage point increase in applicant non-reporting, mirroring national enrollment trends. Less selective colleges had higher non-reporting rates before and after the ruling, alongside significant post-ruling increases. Interestingly, non-reporters tended to be admitted at higher rates than other applicants. Explaining these trends is complex; some students might perceive advantages in withholding race information, while others might face confusion regarding permissible disclosures under the ruling. Additionally, ‘unknown’ fields may reflect identity transitions, category limitations, or misreporting.
The report found no significant correlation between non-reporting increases and enrollment changes for specific racial or ethnic groups. Consequently, the ‘unknown’ category cannot be used to accurately adjust figures for any particular group. An analysis by The Hechinger Report suggests some students continue discussing racial influences in admissions essays, while others downplay such narratives. Essays alone cannot account for the rise in unknowns but reveal how students respond to new, sometimes ambiguous cues surrounding disclosure.
The Importance of Additional Information
Further data is crucial to understanding whether changes in access influence completion and socioeconomic mobility. Identifying who enrolls, where they enroll, and who graduates remains essential to grasping the ruling’s long-term impacts. Both students and institutions are navigating an altered admissions landscape. Guidance from the National Association for College Admission Counseling assists counselors and admissions professionals in understanding evolving practices, enabling informed student decisions.
As only one year of complete national post-ruling enrollment data is available, more federal admissions data is anticipated. This data could eventually reveal application, admission, and enrollment patterns. However, the timing of availability is uncertain. As this academic year progresses, a new class will further shape the evolving picture. Data over the coming years will indicate if current trends represent temporary shifts or enduring changes and determine if changes in enrollment impact graduation rates and subsequent economic opportunities.
Jasmine Davis-Randolph, Ph.D., serves as the strategy officer for research at the Lumina Foundation, an independent entity focused on extending continuous learning opportunities beyond high school for Americans. James Murphy plays a role as a senior fellow at Class Action, an organization dedicated to rebuilding public trust through inclusive practices.
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