Interim South Carolina Senator Darline Graham has taken a significant lead in the race for the state’s GOP Senate nomination, according to a recent Quantus Insights poll. The survey, conducted on August 5 and 6, shows Graham at the forefront with 30.4% support. This comes just ahead of the August 11 special primary. Representative Ralph Norman follows at 17.5%, with Representative Russell Fry at 16.6%, and former Governor Mark Sanford at 15.4%. A notable 11.7% of voters remain undecided.
When undecided voters are considered, Graham’s backing rises to 33.1%. Norman’s support is at 20.4%, Fry at 19.6%, and Sanford at 17.4%. News outlets have reached out to the campaigns of Norman and Fry for comments, as well as leaving a message for Graham’s office.
Understanding the August 11 Special Primary
Early voting for the August 11 special primary in South Carolina ended last Friday. This election was triggered by Senator Lindsey Graham’s unexpected passing on July 11 from an aortic dissection related to cardiovascular disease, as reported by the Washington D.C. medical examiner.
The ballot features ten Republican candidates vying to replace the late senator:
- Darline Graham: Interim senator and sister of Lindsey Graham with backing from Trump.
- Ralph Norman: Conservative congressman from South Carolina’s 5th District.
- Russell Fry: Congressman representing the state’s 7th District.
- Mark Sanford: Former governor seeking a return to politics.
- Mark Lynch: Businessman from Greenville and previous Senate candidate.
- Duke Buckner: Attorney and educator campaigning as a conservative outsider.
- Glenda Gail Parker: Retired Air Force officer focused on cost-of-living issues.
- Danny Ford II: Farmer and businessman advocating for government accountability.
- Mark McBride: Former Myrtle Beach mayor with prior federal candidacies.
- Sam Shepherd: Biomedical engineer and entrepreneur.
Graham’s Chances of Winning
Though new to elected office, Darline Graham’s candidacy gained momentum following President Trump’s endorsement. On Truth Social, Trump praised her as an “American Patriot” and urged her to run, promising voters in South Carolina that she “will never let you down.” Trump emphasized her capability to honor her brother’s legacy.
The Quantus Insights poll reflects her strongest performance in public polling to date. An earlier Emerson College poll had Norman leading narrowly with 22% against Graham’s 19% and Fry’s 12% with 25% undecided. A Resonance Media poll also showed Graham leading with 20.8% over Norman’s 16.9% in the crowded race.
What Prediction Markets Say
Prediction markets seem more optimistic about Graham’s prospects. On Polymarket, participants give her a 65% chance of finishing first in the special primary. Norman follows at 21% and Fry at 9%. Meanwhile, on Kalshi, Graham has a 47% likelihood to win the overall Republican primary, compared to Fry’s 27% and Norman’s 23%.
What’s Next?
With the election approaching quickly, the competition is fierce, but Darline Graham seems well-positioned for the Republican nomination according to latest polls. The primary attracts significant attention as it tests Trump’s clout within the South Carolina GOP following his early endorsement of Graham.
Early voting saw over 41,000 ballots cast in just two days, per the State Election Commission. The primary could impact future Republican races, as noted by political science professor Gibbs Knotts from Coastal Carolina University. Knotts advised Republicans to avoid internal conflicts that might carry negative repercussions into the general election.
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