Two Democratic strongholds in Texas, Harris and Dallas counties, have registered record early-voting numbers. This development appears promising for Democrats who need to maintain control in key areas of the state. Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico is gaining attention as polls indicate a slight advantage over Republican Ken Paxton.
Senate and Gubernatorial Races
In the race for governor, Republican Governor Greg Abbott faces a stiff challenge from Democrat Gina Hinojosa, with current polls reflecting a narrowing gap of approximately two points. It’s noteworthy that a Democrat has not achieved a statewide victory in Texas in 32 years. The possibility of Texas turning Democratic is causing concern among Republicans.
Donald Trump won the state by nearly 14 points in the 2024 election, but his popularity has declined amid issues like economic concerns, high gas prices, and the conflict in Iran. Given these issues, Republicans are attempting to rally support from rural and suburban voters.
Record Early Voting Numbers
Harris County, encompassing Houston, has shattered records for early voting turnout in a midterm election. The county processed over 70,000 voters by 3:30 p.m. on the first day, surpassing the 2018 record of 63,188 people. However, Harris County now has more registered voters than before, rising from 2,357,199 in 2018 to 2,702,952 in 2023.
Similarly, Dallas County reported breaking its first-day early voting record, with 76,069 voters surpassing the 2020 tally of 60,573, indicating a 25.6 percent increase. Registered voters in Dallas County also increased from 1,398,469 in 2020 to 1,463,708 in 2023.
El Paso County recorded its second-highest turnout for a midterm election’s first day, with 22,412 votes, following the 2018 record of 24,449 votes.
Republican Strategies and Concerns
On a recent podcast, Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick mentioned Republicans’ need to mobilize rural and suburban votes to counter Democratic voters. Conservative influencer Mark Levin emphasized the pivotal role Texas plays in determining the direction of Washington politics.
This concern has prompted over $158 million in outside spending by Republican leadership. Former President Trump has been actively campaigning in Texas, aiming to bolster Paxton’s support.
Endorsements and Polls
James Talarico received an endorsement from The Dallas Morning News, a publication that traditionally supported Republican John Cornyn. The endorsement criticized Paxton’s history of scandals and praised Talarico as a candidate of integrity.
Talarico has a slight lead in most polls, with an average advantage of 2.2 points according to RealClearPolitics. The CBS News/YouGov poll shows him at 51 percent against Paxton’s 49 percent, with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
Abbott currently holds a small lead over Hinojosa, with the RealClearPolitics average showing him ahead by 3.4 points. A recent CBS News/YouGov poll indicates a narrow lead for Abbott, with 52 percent to Hinojosa’s 48 percent.
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