Democrat Annie Andrews is narrowly behind Republican Senator Darline Graham in a new South Carolina Senate poll. Conducted to gauge the political landscape for the 2026 midterm elections, the poll shows Andrews trailing by just one point.
South Carolina is traditionally a conservative stronghold. In the 2024 presidential election, former President Donald Trump led by nearly 18 points in the state. However, declining national approval for Trump has given Democrats hope to expand their influence in the November 3 election.
Beyond South Carolina, Democrats are also focusing on traditionally Republican states such as Kansas and Mississippi. These states join others like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas—seen as battlegrounds since they gave Trump substantial leads in 2024.
Graham assumed the Senate seat after her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham, passed away. Her candidacy received an endorsement from Trump. The poll conducted by InsiderAdvantage indicates that 46 percent of the respondents back Graham, whereas 45 percent support Andrews. The poll sampled 1,200 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points. Other candidates garnered 5 percent, and 4 percent of respondents remain undecided. These findings were recorded between September 28 and 29, 2026.
This is the latest in a series of close polls for South Carolina. The state’s polls have previously misled Democrats. A notable instance was in 2020 when Senator Lindsey Graham and Democrat Jaime Harrison appeared to be in a tight race, only for Graham to win comfortably by 10 points.
Contacts from both Andrews’s and Graham’s campaigns were reached out for comments via email by Newsweek.
Darline Graham’s Position in South Carolina
Other polls confirm only a slight edge for Graham. Trafalgar Group, a Republican pollster, reported a one-point lead for Graham at 43 percent compared to Andrews’ 42 percent. That poll included 1,087 likely voters with a 2.9 points margin of error. InsiderAdvantage previously noted Graham was up by 2 points from a survey held between September 8 and 9. The margin of error then was 2.83 points.
This shift contrasts with South Carolina’s 2024 election results, where Trump won the state with 58 percent against Kamala Harris’s 40 percent. National Democrats sense a potential change in the voters’ mood, thanks to a YouGov and The Economist survey that shows a 15-point advantage for Democrats on the generic ballot. It was based on 1,003 likely voters surveyed from September 25 to 28.
Economic frustrations and the cost of living challenges have reportedly impacted Trump’s approval rating. Democrats hope this shift can open up conservative areas like South Carolina to new possibilities.
The Polling Landscape Compared to 2020
Comparisons are being drawn to the 2020 race between Jaime Harrison and Lindsey Graham. While previous polling errors cause uncertainty, Data for Progress indicated a 3-point lead for Graham over Harrison ahead of the 2020 election with a 3.3 points margin of error.
Challenges of Turning South Carolina Blue
Despite closer polling, winning South Carolina remains challenging for Democrats. The state last favored a Democrat in the presidential election of 1976 and has seen Republican dominance since. Notably, Trump secured an 18-point victory here in 2024.
Though South Carolina boasts a significant Black voter base, which favors Democrats, rural areas and suburbs maintain strong GOP support. Nonetheless, Democrats believe the national elections’ challenging environment for Republicans may permit them to compete in traditionally conservative states.
Current polling, tracked by Civiqs, reflects Trump’s approval decline. In South Carolina, 50 percent of voters disapprove of him, against 44 percent who show approval.
Future Outlook
Forecasts still indicate an advantage for Graham. The Cook Political Report labels the race as Likely Republican, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball sees it as Safe Republican. Observers will closely monitor polling as an indicator of voter sentiment leading up to the midterms.
Important Voter Information for South Carolina
Key dates for voter registration include:
- In-person registration deadline: October 2 at 5 p.m.
- Online, fax, or email registration deadline: October 4 at 11:59 p.m.
- Mail registration must be postmarked by October 5.
Early voting is available from October 19 to 31. Registered voters can vote at designated centers in their counties. The deadline for absentee ballot applications is October 23 at 5 p.m.
This story was produced using Martyn, Newsweek’s AI assistant. For further details, contact Newsweek editors Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas.
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