Florida’s Senate race is heating up as Republican Senator Ashley Moody faces off against Democrat Angie Nixon. Recent opinion polls indicate a tight race, suggesting a significant contest in the upcoming November midterms.
Senate Seat at Stake
Nixon aims to flip the seat previously held by Marco Rubio. This would represent a considerable gain for Democrats, who are striving to take control of the Senate. The last time a Democrat won statewide in Florida was in 2018, and Republicans currently hold a voter registration advantage.
Poll Results
The Moody campaign informed supporters of two recent surveys showing a close contest. Both polls reflect near ties in what is labeled as the most significant Senate special election in 2026.
St. Pete Polls
St. Pete Polls surveyed 913 likely Florida voters, placing Moody just 0.4 percentage points ahead. The breakdown shows Nixon leading among independents and young voters, whereas Moody holds an advantage with non-Hispanic white voters and older residents. These results should be cautiously interpreted due to small demographic sample sizes.
Change Research Survey
Change Research conducted another poll of 1,107 likely voters for Freedom Project USA. The results showed a tie, with each candidate securing 47% of the vote. President Trump’s net favorability rating stood at minus ten.
Quantus Insights Poll
Conversely, a Quantus Insights poll of 733 likely voters saw Moody with 50% of the vote, compared to Nixon’s 43%, though it has a larger margin of error.
Political Landscape
Despite the poll results, Moody is considered the favorite according to Decision Desk HQ, which predicts a 78% chance of her victory. The RealClearPolling average gives her a five-point lead.
Primary Outcome
Moody was appointed to the Senate by Governor Ron DeSantis in 2025. Nixon secured her candidacy by defeating Alexander Vindman in the Democratic primary, a significant victory in spite of being outspent.
Currently, the Senate comprises 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. A loss would limit President Trump’s ability to pursue his agenda in his remaining term.
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