Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is ahead by 7 points over Republican Representative Mike Collins, according to a recent poll in the Georgia Senate race. This race is crucial for Democrats aiming to control the Senate in the 2026 midterms. Georgia’s status as a battleground state is solidified by its voting history; it supported Donald Trump in 2016 and 2024 while electing Joe Biden in 2020.
The latest InsiderAdvantage poll reveals that 50% of voters support Ossoff, while 43% back Collins, with 7% undecided. This survey included 800 likely voters, from August 16 to August 17, showing a margin of error of 3.46 percentage points. James Magazine was the first to report these findings.
A spokesperson for Ossoff expressed optimism about his re-election prospects, despite substantial Republican spending against him. They emphasized the campaign’s momentum and commitment to securing votes across Georgia.
Collins’ Campaign Manager Josh Siegel noted the campaign’s progress, having narrowed the gap significantly with limited resources. He criticized Ossoff’s efforts to reshape his political image, claiming voters disapprove of Ossoff’s record.
Political predictions categorize this race as favorable for Democrats. The Sabato Crystal Ball rates it as “Likely Democrat,” while both the Cook Political Report and the Fox News Senate Forecast call it “Lean Democrat.”
What Other Polls Indicate
Ossoff, who began his term in 2021, maintains a lead, but Republicans view this election as a significant opportunity, alongside Michigan, where Trump also won in 2016 and 2024.
An AARP poll shows a 9-point lead for Ossoff at 52% compared to Collins’ 43%. This survey involved 1,060 voters from July 13 to July 16, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Another Wick poll indicates a narrower 4-point lead for Ossoff with a 46.7% support against Collins’ 42.9%. This data came from 1,175 likely voters, reported between June 27 and June 30, with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.
A Fox News poll suggests a 13-point lead for Ossoff, placing him at 56% to Collins’ 43%, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research with 1,002 registered voters from June 23 to June 27.
Ossoff’s Standing in Prediction Markets
Ossoff’s prospects have improved in prediction markets. On Kalshi, his likelihood of winning rose to 91.3%, up from 87% a month earlier. Polymarket showed his chances at 94%, up from 86% a month earlier.
Prediction markets reflect real-time trader opinions based on political developments, fundraising, and poll results.
Governor Race Remains Competitive
The same InsiderAdvantage poll reveals a tight governor race between Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson, each receiving 46% support, with 8% undecided.
While the Senate race shows a clear lead for Ossoff, the governor’s race remains a narrow contest. Outgoing Republican Governor Brian Kemp, who has chosen not to participate in the Senate race, had previously secured two terms.
AARP’s poll gives Bottoms a slight 2-point lead over Jackson, while Wick’s poll shows a near tie, with Jackson slightly ahead. Fox News poll indicates a 5-point lead for Bottoms, at 52% against Jackson’s 47%.
Ossoff and Trump Dispute Over Media Remarks
Ossoff recently criticized Trump’s relationship with his aide, Natalie Harp, claiming the president is neglecting duties amid foreign tensions. Ossoff’s comments came during an interview with MS Now’s Jen Psaki.
White House Director of Communications Steven Cheung responded by reposting Ossoff’s clip on X, attacking Ossoff’s character and political stance.
Ossoff’s Potential 2028 Presidential Run
Ossoff is often viewed as a likely presidential candidate for the Democratic primary in 2028. Despite party interest in his candidacy, he dismisses speculation, stating no intention to run for president in 2028.
Polls serve to gauge name recognition and candidate viability. Focaldata and Financial Times showed Kamala Harris leading the 2028 field with 30% support. Ossoff was further back at 5%, alongside Arizona Senator Mark Kelly.
In prediction markets, Ossoff is a notable contender for the nomination, reflected by his 16% chance on Kalshi and 14% on Polymarket.
Democrats’ Strategy for Senate Control
To regain Senate control, Democrats need victories in critical states like Georgia and flipping Republican-held seats. They face challenges since Republicans hold a current 53-47 majority.
Other target states include Maine, North Carolina, and considering opportunities in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas where polls show tight races.
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