Iranian leaders show significant unity in their approach to resisting the United States and its allies as attacks on bases increase. They aim to prove Iran can withstand more than its adversaries. However, there are notable internal divisions regarding the ultimate goal.
Strategic Factionalism
The hardline group, known as ‘Paydari,’ opposes any negotiations with the U.S., seeking total victory. They are ideologically driven to impose their control over Iranian society. On the other hand, supporters of President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf view military pressure as a means to reach a negotiated settlement. This camp is motivated by the economic costs of war and societal changes.
Qalibaf’s adviser, Mahdi Mohammadi, emphasized negotiations as a strategic tool alongside military action to force concessions from the enemy. The conspicuous rivalries within Iran’s leadership reflect a broader struggle over the country’s future direction post-conflict.
The Role of Moytabá Jamenei
The position of the new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Moytabá Jamenei, remains uncertain since an attack on February 28 reportedly injured him. Both factions claim his support. Meanwhile, a ceasefire agreement with the U.S., reached in April, found backing from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, showing a potential shift in power dynamics.
An influential vote from this council suggests ongoing power struggles. Saeed Jalili, the prominent figure opposing the ceasefire, shows the tensions within the leadership. A breakdown of the ceasefire amid ongoing attacks has refocused efforts on controlling strategic points like the Strait of Hormuz.
Public Sentiment and Internal Challenges
Iran faces economic struggles, with its currency depreciating, inflation soaring, and unemployment rising. A final U.S. agreement could lift sanctions, returning billions in assets, boosting Iran’s economy at last.
Dissatisfaction with the war has become more apparent. In July, a petition signed by over 250 public figures argued for peace. Additionally, reactions to mass executions after the January protests highlighted internal unrest.
Pragmatists assert that addressing public discontent is crucial for unity. They seek to balance military objectives with economic realities.
The Future Post-Conflict
Both factions focus on power dynamics following the war, amid uncertainty over Iran’s supreme leadership. Moytabá Jamenei’s undisclosed stance adds to the tension. While some predict a more radical direction under his leadership, others foresee potential moderation.
Reformist cleric Mohamad Ali Abtahi notes the supreme leader’s potential to moderate extremist factions. However, failure to do so could intensify factional confrontations over time.
Correspondents Nasser Karimi and Sarah El Deeb contributed to this report.
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