James Talarico’s lead over Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race has decreased by one point, based on two recent opinion polls. These polls also reveal a drop in the number of undecided voters.
Democrats aim to gain control of the Senate in the upcoming November midterms. A victory in Texas could significantly enhance their chances, as the state last elected a Democratic senator in 1988.
Recent Polls
The Texas Public Opinion Research survey, which polled 1,007 likely Texan voters from September 19 to 22 with a 3.6% margin of error, shows Talarico leading Paxton by five points. Talarico garners 49% of the vote compared to Paxton’s 44%.
A previous survey conducted from August 21 to 24 with 1,000 probable voters showed Talarico at a six-point lead, with 48% of the vote against Paxton’s 42%. During this period, undecided voters fell from 7% to 3%, while Libertarian candidate Ted Brown gained two percentage points. Talarico’s support decrease remains within the margin of error.
Separately, a survey by Texas Southern University of 1,800 likely voters from September 15 to 19 places Talarico a single point ahead, at 47% to Paxton’s 46%, with Brown claiming 3%. This survey has a 2.31% margin of error. Previously, Talarico led by two points (47% to 45%) in a survey conducted from July 27 to 30. The undecided voter proportion decreased from 6% to 4% during this time.
Newsweek reached out to Talarico and Paxton’s campaigns for comment outside regular office hours on Saturday.
Other Poll Insights
Eight separate polling organizations indicate Talarico’s lead over Paxton, though several results fall within the margin of error. An Emerson College survey conducted September 12-14 with 1,000 voters shows Talarico with a one-point lead (47% to 46%). Its margin of error is 3 percentage points.
An AARP survey of 895 probable voters between August 30 and September 1 provided a four-point lead for Talarico, with a 3.3-point margin of error. Similarly, a YouGov/Univision poll involving 1,000 registered voters from August 27 to September 4 reported a five-point lead for Talarico, with a 3.6-point margin of error.
Debate Proposition
On Thursday, Talarico challenged Paxton to a televised debate on Fox News at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin. He accused Paxton of “dodging debates all year” and proposed, “Let’s do Bret Baier on Fox News. I’ll go into the lion’s den.”
Campaign Funding
According to Federal Election Commission (FEC) data up to June 30, Talarico’s campaign has raised $31,853,507, surpassing Paxton’s $9,147,100. Out-of-state contributions constitute 45% for Talarico, with California as the largest contributor, compared to 17.1% for Paxton.
For editorial inquiries, contact Edward Pearcey at Newsweek.
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