Major League Baseball’s decision to align all 15 games on the final day of the regular season resulted in dramatic outcomes. Teams contested postseason spots that were unresolved until the last possible moment.
The American League West race was a standout, with the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers both coming into the day tied at 80-81. Similarly, the third wild card spot in the National League saw competition between the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks.
Just a week earlier, FanGraphs data showed the Phillies had a 99.1% chance to make the postseason. They secured a playoff series appearance by defeating the Tampa Bay Rays 7-3.
However, as the dust settled, the Astros marked an unwelcome historic milestone as the worst division-winning team in baseball history. Throughout the regular season, they ended with an 81-81 record, the lowest winning percentage for a division winner over a full season. Previously, the 2005 San Diego Padres held the dubious distinction with an 82-80 record.
While Houston avoided the 80-82 record with a decisive 9-0 win against the Athletics, their season performance was not commendable. Despite this, run differential shows they were worse off than their standing suggests. The Astros were outscored by 32 runs that season, implying an expected record of 78-84.
Run differential is often a more reliable indicator of future wins and losses than standings. The Miami Marlins, outscoring opponents by three runs, finished with an 81-81 record. The Milwaukee Brewers, with a +214 run differential, matched up to their expected record of 103-59.
Despite getting outperformed statistically, teams can surprise or underachieve for numerous reasons. A team might win blowouts yet fail in close games due to bad luck or timely injuries. The Houston Astros, even placed against the 76-86 expected outcome of the Rangers, faced postseason elimination threats.
Although expectations lean towards a quick exit, the Astros will host the Chicago White Sox in a wild card series. Despite Chicago being the better team, the unpredictability of a playoff series has led FanGraphs to give Houston a 55% chance of advancing.
If the Astros progress, they encounter the Cleveland Guardians next, another team labeled mediocre with an 85-77 record and +11 run differential. While Cleveland could be slightly favored, a win for Houston isn’t out of reach.
MLB’s strategy to heighten drama saw mixed results. The Astros’ postseason opportunity emerged from a structure incentivizing minimal team expenditures. Their AL West triumph ranks low in fan satisfaction but high in last-minute thrills.
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