Russia’s Strategic Maneuvers in Syria Post-Assad

In recent years, many believed Russia would suffer significantly from the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. Moscow invested heavily in sustaining Assad’s power. However, with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s takeover of Damascus in December 2024, assumptions about Russia’s diminishing role seemed premature.

Western capitals anticipated Russia’s gradual loss of influence in the Levant. Contrary to this, a report from the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Israel highlights Russia strengthening ties with Damascus and achieving notable successes.

“Confidence-building steps were taken…including shipments of wheat and fuel; diplomatic outreach and high-level delegations,”

noted the INSS study. Russia extended proposals for cooperation, aiming to rehabilitate Syrian energy infrastructure and boost material and food assistance. Moscow positioned itself to support Syria’s military, offering training, arms procurement, and potential limited deployments.

Russia’s ambitions extend further; reports show plans for a commercial logistics hub at Tartus. This hub, previously a military asset, will transform into a key commercial element, linking Tartus to the Russian port of Novorossiysk and increasing goods flow to 250,000 tons monthly.

Moscow’s new strategy ties Syria’s economy closely to its own, shifting from a sole military focus to a more sustainable economic approach. This includes Russia’s significant share in Syria’s wheat imports—around 85%—and increased energy reliance with 60,000 barrels of Russian oil daily.

The logistics hub would further cement this economic dependency, crucial for Syria’s reconstruction efforts.

The U.S. and its allies face potential setbacks. Recent efforts aimed at integrating Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, into a Western-aligned framework include lifting certain sanctions. These moves hope to influence Syria’s future towards a Western strategic orientation.

However, Russia’s entrenched role in Syria’s reconstruction and commerce suggests a different trajectory. Moscow is set to play a pivotal role in shaping Syria’s future, contrasting with Washington’s strategic goals.

Ilan Berman is Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC. The opinions shared are the author’s own.