Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina stated on Monday that it is “almost statistically impossible” for the Republican Party to maintain control of the House in the 2026 midterm elections. During an appearance on MS NOW’s “The Beat” with host Ari Melber, Tillis addressed the internal divisions within the GOP linked to President Trump. He emphasized his support for Trump as the party leader, saying, “I’m supporting the president because he’s the head of the party, not because he’s Donald J. Trump, but because he is the face of our party.”
Tillis, who is not seeking reelection, acknowledged the challenges the party faces, stating, “I want my party to be in the best position for elections. And we’re going to take a little bit of a hit this season and recover from it.” He further remarked, “I think the House is almost statistically impossible to win at this point.” However, Tillis expressed confidence in the GOP’s ability to hold the Senate, though “it will be a tight margin, but I still think we pull it out.” He highlighted strong candidates in Maine, Ohio, and Arkansas, stressing the need for them to campaign vigorously.
Tillis’s comments come amid a challenging electoral landscape for GOP candidates. Factors include Trump’s low approval ratings, an unpopular conflict in Iran, trade tensions with Canada, and persistent inflation concerns. Polling averages currently classify the Senate as a toss-up. The Democratic Party needs to secure four seats to regain Senate control. Competitive races are underway in Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa, Texas, and Alaska, with recent polls showing Democrats leading by six points in Texas, seven in Alaska, and three in Ohio. In Iowa and Kansas, Democrats are struggling, being down one point in Iowa and tied in Kansas. These polls fall within the margin of error, which is 4.5 points in Ohio and 4.6 points in Iowa and Kansas.
Tillis’s vacant seat is expected to go to Democratic candidate Roy Cooper, North Carolina’s former governor. According to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), Cooper has an 84 percent chance of flipping the seat. DDHQ also projects that Democrats have a 76 percent likelihood of capturing the House and a 56 percent chance of taking back the Senate.
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