A fragment from a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is on course to collide with the moon on Wednesday. This piece of the rocket is projected to impact at around 2:35 a.m. ET, traveling at over 5,000 miles per hour. Bill Gray, a developer of space tracking software, provided these estimates.
The fragment, roughly the size of a five-story building, originates from the Falcon 9 rocket that launched two lunar landers and scientific tools to the moon in January 2025. The collision is predicted to occur on the moon’s sunlit side, visible from Earth, near the Einstein Crater in the northwestern region. Gray estimates the resultant crater may reach a diameter of at least 17 meters.
SpaceX did not plan for this piece to crash into the moon, a point noted by the Associated Press. NPR has requested comments from SpaceX but has yet to receive a reply.
Brent Garry, a project scientist for NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter at Goddard Space Flight Center, stated that the orbiter will survey the area pre- and post-impact to detect any surface changes. “After the impact, we might have a clearer understanding of its location. We can perform additional targeting around a week later,” Garry mentioned in June during a session organized by NASA’s Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute.
The impact’s visibility is uncertain. Some researchers suggest a dust plume might be difficult for even professional telescopes to view. Gray noted that rocks ejected by the impact may become visible against the space backdrop, and he expressed curiosity about this potential visibility.
Despite the challenges, the event offers a rare chance for scientific observation. “These events are infrequent,” said Ben Fernando, a postdoctoral fellow from Los Alamos National Laboratory. “While you won’t see it with binoculars, if you have the proper equipment and timing, it could be worthwhile to observe.”
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