An unexpected shift has occurred in some of Texas’s traditionally Republican neighborhoods. Recent analyses reveal that Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico has received more contributions from these districts than his GOP opponent, Ken Paxton. This financial trend was highlighted by a thorough review of Federal Election Commission records conducted by The Houston Chronicle.
Fundraising Details
The analysis shows Talarico outperforming Paxton in numerous ZIP codes that previously supported former President Donald Trump. This change comes as Texas plays a critical role in the Senate race, with Democrats eager to secure a seat they haven’t won since 1988, leveraging Trump’s current low approval ratings.
In University Park, a town in a district Trump won handily in 2024, Talarico has amassed $214,296, surpassing Paxton’s $181,656 by over 18 percent as of June 30. This town ranks as the second-largest contributor to Paxton’s campaign from any ZIP code in the U.S.
Broader Trends
This trend isn’t isolated. Across 11 ZIP codes spanning four metropolitan areas within state House districts Trump won in 2024, Talarico raised roughly $1.3 million compared to Paxton’s $422,000. In particular, The Woodlands, north of Houston, stands out. Here, four ZIP codes donated $238,622 to Talarico and just $39,281 to Paxton. In one ZIP code, 77381, Talarico received $98,103, starkly outpacing Paxton’s $19,247.
West Houston presents a similar pattern. Talarico received $255,116 from the 77024 ZIP code, outmatching Paxton’s $60,643. In 77079, further west, contributions to Talarico were $98,189 compared to Paxton’s $10,405.
Area-Specific Findings
In the Katy and Richmond suburbs, Talarico raised $152,557 across two ZIP codes, outpacing Paxton’s $50,228. On the other hand, Highland Park in Dallas remains Paxton’s strongest ZIP code nationwide, producing $211,701.
Though Talarico is gaining in Republican areas, his most substantial funds come from regions opposing Trump. His top ZIP code, 78746, covering West Lake Hills, contributed $584,863 against Paxton’s $145,365. Another strong area for Talarico is Houston’s 77019, raising $429,975, whereas Paxton failed to rank this ZIP code among his top 10.
Fundraising Dynamics Over Time
The financial gap didn’t widen overnight. While Talarico’s fundraising surged, Paxton’s stalled as he contended with John Cornyn for the GOP nomination. In the second quarter of 2025, Paxton raised $2.9 million, then saw declines until recovering to over $9 million post-primary in 2026.
Talarico entered the race on September 8, 2025, quickly raising $6.2 million in three weeks. His subsequent quarters showed significant gains, with $7 million in late 2025, and $27 million followed by $31.6 million in early 2026.
By June 30, Talarico’s campaign reported funds totaling $68.6 million with expenditures of $47 million, retaining $21.5 million. Paxton, via two committees, raised $9.2 million, spent $7.5 million, and ended with $1.76 million in reserve.
Republican Response and Current Polls
Reports suggest Paxton blames Trump for flagging numbers. During a private Washington fundraiser, Paxton attributed a decline to a Republican convention Trump held in Dallas. The recording of this event, later shared with The New York Times, supports these claims.
Public polls still show Talarico leading, though narrowly. Many September surveys, except those sponsored by Republican interests, confirm Talarico’s lead, varying from one to six points. The most substantial was a Marist University survey reporting a lead of 50 percent to 44 percent for Talarico among registered voters.
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