In Georgia’s Republican gubernatorial runoff, the race is intensifying. A new polling memo reveals businessman Rick Jackson has taken the lead over Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones. Jones, initially favored with former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, is now trailing.
Shifts in Polling
Several weeks after the initial primary, where Jones secured about 39% and Jackson 33%, dynamics have shifted. A Cygnal polling memo indicates Jackson has erased Jones’ lead. On a first-choice ballot conducted May 28, Jones was ahead with 41% to Jackson’s 38%. By June 7, the scenario changed, with Jackson receiving 46% support compared to Jones’ 35%.
The memo notes, “Jones has everything moving against him.” It describes a significant 14-point swing, with first-choice votes transforming from a +3 Jones advantage to an +11 Jackson lead.
Current Polling Landscape
On the combined ballot, Jackson holds 56%, while Jones has 44%. The memo points out that Jones “has not had a single day where he closed the spread.”
Contrasting findings from other polls present varied images. A CivicLens Research survey, for instance, shows Jones leading by 10 points, with 50% to Jackson’s 40%, while 10% of voters remain undecided. Conducted with 700 likely voters from May 29 to June 1, this poll has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
A JMC Enterprises poll conducted on May 26 and May 27 surveyed 600 likely voters, showing Jackson up by 2 points, 45% to Jones’ 43%, with around 12% undecided, and a similar margin of error.
Prediction Markets
Despite recent polling, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket currently favor Jones for the GOP nomination. As of Tuesday evening, Kalshi’s odds for Jones stand at 58%, and Polymarket’s at 61%.
The Broader Georgia Political Landscape
Georgia, which supported Trump in 2024, remains a closely contested battleground. Democrats now hold the state’s U.S. Senate seats, while Republicans govern the state.
The Republican nominee from the runoff will vie against former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms in the general election. Trump’s endorsements still play a pivotal role in Republican primaries. In recent cycles, Trump-endorsed candidates have succeeded in various races, underscoring the challenges for Republicans opposing Trump.
Governor Brian Kemp, who reached term limits, once faced Trump’s criticism for not supporting efforts to overturn Georgia’s 2020 election results. Their reconciliation and Kemp’s support for Trump’s 2024 campaign illustrate the complex relationship between Georgia Republicans and Trump.
Leave a Reply