After 18 months of President Donald Trump’s second term, polling highlights a steady partisan divide in the U.S. However, many of Trump’s earlier advantages have diminished. Data from Civiqs’ online tracking poll, surveying 117,851 registered voters, reveals key insights.
National Approval Ratings
As of July 17, 2026, national approval for Trump stands at 37%, with 58% disapproving, resulting in a net approval of -21. This reflects a significant dip since he returned to office on January 20, 2025.
State-by-State Analysis
The state-by-state analysis mirrors national sentiment. Republican areas show strong support for Trump, while Democratic regions are deeply opposed. Battleground states show a struggle in approval.
Key Points
- Trump faces negative net approval in all major battleground states.
- Solid support exists in Republican strongholds like Wyoming, North Dakota, and Idaho.
- States that began his term with positive approval now show negative trends.
- Younger voters, independents, and postgraduates are among Trump’s weakest demographics.
Implications of Current Polls
Current polling indicates Trump’s negative ratings in swing states could impact congressional dynamics in 2026. Small shifts in these approvals might sway control of Congress.
Republican Heartland Support
Despite a decline in approval, Trump maintains a positive net rating in many Republican states. Wyoming leads with a +24 net approval, followed by North Dakota at +18, Idaho and West Virginia at +14. Comparatively, these figures are reduced from the start of his second term.
Kentucky exemplifies these changes, dropping from +23 to a neutral stance. Approval margins have decreased in many traditionally Republican regions.
Challenges in Swing States
Swing states show Trump at a significant disadvantage:
- Arizona: -11
- Georgia: -21
- Nevada: -21
- North Carolina: -13
- Pennsylvania: -14
- Wisconsin: -15
- Florida: -12
- Ohio: -11
These states show a reversal from positive or neutral ratings at the beginning of his term.
Continued Opposition in Democratic States
In Democratic strongholds, Trump remains unpopular. Hawaii holds a -59 net approval, Vermont at -55, Maryland at -50, California at -44, and Massachusetts at -46. These figures highlight unwavering opposition.
Demographic Insights
Demographic analysis shows Trump’s weakest points. Approval among 18-34 year-olds is at 24%, while 69% disapprove. Among ages 35-49, approval is at 29%, with 64% disapproving. Among independents, 30% approve, and 63% disapprove. Gender and education also play roles, with a notable gap in approval among women and postgraduates.
Declines in Approval Ratings
Every state shows a lower net approval than in January 2025. The most considerable drops include:
- Wyoming: +47 to +24
- Kentucky: +23 to 0
- Florida: +9 to -12
- Idaho: +34 to +14
- Ohio: +8 to -11
These declining trends suggest shrinking support in once Republican-leaning areas.
Tightening Margins
The current map shows many states close to neutrality. Indiana is at +3, Utah at +4, and Kansas at +3. Louisiana and Missouri are both at -3, while Kentucky is at 0. This suggests a compressed margin of approval and disapproval across states.
Overall Partisan Shape
The political map retains familiar partisan traits, with Republican states supporting Trump and Democratic states opposing. However, overall support margins have narrowed significantly. At his second term’s onset, Trump enjoyed more positive ratings across Republican regions but now faces tighter approval margins.
White House Response
The White House cites Trump’s 2024 victory as evidence of public endorsement, maintaining that his agenda is solidifying his support base. Spokesman Davis Ingle emphasizes that Trump’s agenda is progressing as intended.
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