More than a year into President Donald Trump’s second term, a comprehensive analysis of state-level polling suggests that his popularity has weakened nationwide. Some of the sharpest declines are in areas that once supported him most robustly.
Key Points
- Net approval has dropped in every state since Trump began his second term.
- The most significant declines are in Republican-leaning states, not solely Democratic ones.
- Battleground states like Florida, Ohio, and Nevada have shifted to net disapproval.
- Pro-Trump advantages have narrowed sharply, even in his strongest states.
- The political map still reflects the partisan divide, but with weaker margins.
The data come from a Civiqs tracking poll of registered voters, with over 107,000 responses collected from January 2025 to May 2026. Newsweek compared these state results from Trump’s first day back in office with the latest estimates, where net approval is calculated as approval minus disapproval. Continuous surveying and statistical modeling ensure these results reflect smoothed trends, not a single snapshot.
Declines Across States
Every state in the tracker shows a drop in Trump’s net approval since his second term began. The steepest declines are concentrated in a mix of Republican strongholds and key battlegrounds.
Using the date filter on the map below, you can compare Trump’s net approval rating by state at the start of his second term with the latest Civiqs estimate and search your state to view changes in approval.
Biggest Drops
The largest declines in net approval illustrate how much ground Trump has lost since taking office.
Wyoming: +47 → +22 (down 25 points)
Kentucky: +23 → 0 (down 23 points)
Nebraska: +18 → -4 (down 22 points)
Alaska: +9 → -12 (down 21 points)
Florida: +9 → -12 (down 21 points)
Oklahoma: +31 → +10 (down 21 points)
Nevada: 0 → -20 (down 20 points)
Maine: -12 → -31 (down 19 points)
Ohio: +8 → -11 (down 19 points)
Utah: +20 → +1 (down 19 points)
States like Idaho, Tennessee, and Montana also fall by 19 points, while Kansas and West Virginia are down 18 points. These shifts indicate states that began with comfortable pro-Trump margins are now less secure, with several slipping into negative territory.
Wyoming remains Trump’s strongest state, but even there the margin has diminished sharply. Kentucky has dropped from solidly positive to even, highlighting the quick changes.
Swing States
The political movement is most significant in battleground states, where small changes can have major consequences.
Florida: +9 → -12 (positive to negative)
Ohio: +8 → -11 (positive to negative)
Nevada: 0 → -20 (even to clearly underwater)
Nebraska: +18 → -4 (positive to negative)
States like Pennsylvania and North Carolina remain competitive but show further slippage since the term began. The pattern reinforces a broader reality; Trump is underwater in many states that typically decide national elections, even if the margins are not overwhelming.
Deep Red States
Trump’s support remains strongest in much of the Republican map, but the margins are narrower than at the start of his presidency.
States such as Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, and Montana still show positive net approval, yet each has lost nearly 20 points since January 2025. Even in deeply conservative Wyoming, the country’s most pro-Trump state, the net advantage has been halved. This suggests his base remains intact but less dominant.
Deep Blue States
In Democratic-leaning states, Trump began with sharply negative ratings that have worsened. States like California, New York, and Massachusetts register deeper negative net approval than before, although the change scale is smaller than in red states due to limited room to fall.
The story is more about entrenched opposition becoming even more firmly embedded, rather than dramatic shifts.
What’s Driving the Drop
Across the states with the biggest declines, approval is down and disapproval is up, often by similar margins.
- Approval has fallen by around 10 to 14 points.
- Disapproval has risen by roughly 8 to 11 points.
This pattern indicates that the decline is not just due to waning enthusiasm but reflects a broader voter sentiment shift.
Wyoming shows this trend:
Approval: 72 → 58 (down 14)
Disapproval: 25 → 36 (up 11)
Net: +47 → +22 (down 25)
When both sides move simultaneously, net approval can drop rapidly. This is what has occurred across the nation.
A Familiar but Weaker National Map
The overall political map remains familiar in structure but weaker. Trump’s best states are still his strongest, and his weakest states remain firmly in opposition. However, the margins have shifted downward.
At the start of Trump’s second term, clear positive net approval existed across much of the Republican map and several battlegrounds. Now, many of those states are narrowly positive, evenly split, or clearly negative.
The dividing lines remain unchanged, but the ground beneath them has moved.
White House Response
The White House has dismissed the significance of recent polling, emphasizing Trump’s 2024 election victory as the clearest measure of public support.
Spokesperson Davis Ingle often cites the nearly 80 million Americans who voted for Trump as proof of the administration’s mandate. The White House maintains focus on economic priorities, such as jobs, inflation, and housing affordability, arguing that the impact of the president’s policies will become clearer over time.
Leave a Reply