President Donald Trump assured reporters in the Oval Office on May 11 that gasoline prices in the United States would significantly decrease following the resolution of the conflict with Iran. At that time, the average price for a gallon of regular gas had soared to $4.52 nationwide. However, energy experts remain skeptical of such immediate changes. Analysts predict that U.S. gas prices will not revert to pre-conflict levels by the end of the year, even if the war ends abruptly.
Pre-War Gas Prices
Before the Iran conflict, the national average for gas was $2.98 per gallon. Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service, conveyed to Newsweek that this price point might not return until the second half of 2027. Gas prices in the U.S. were in decline prior to February 28, when the U.S. and Israel initiated strikes on Iran. The Trump administration previously heralded these reductions as advantageous for American families.
The onset of the Iran war altered this trend. Global oil production disruptions and constraints on the vital Strait of Hormuz, imposed by Tehran, elevated oil and gas prices worldwide. This strait typically handles 20% of the world’s oil traffic, but its flow diminished significantly after February 28.
Current Gas Prices
This week’s nationwide average gas price was approximately $4.5, as indicated by American Automobile Association (AAA) data, marking a $1.5 increase since late February. California residents faced the highest gas prices, exceeding $6 per gallon, while in Mississippi, prices were just below $4 per gallon.
Factors Influencing Future Gas Prices
Simply ending the Iran conflict won’t significantly lower U.S. gas prices. Experts unanimously stress the importance of restoring full traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Patrick De Haan from GasBuddy highlighted that reopening the strait to oil shipments is essential, yet returning to pre-war price levels may still be months or years away.
Though normal oil flow through the Strait is the first step, Cinquegrana and De Haan emphasize that even after reopening, it will require time to stabilize. De Haan elaborated in a FactCheck.org interview that full normalization could take several weeks. Reopening today might see ships operating by early June, but it could be July before these shipments reach the market. Returning to pre-war prices might take over a year.
Oil prices have shown slight improvements, attributed to Trump’s remarks on negotiations to conclude the war. Analysts, though, exhibit caution regarding these price reductions.
Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist for LPL Financial, mentioned in a Newsweek statement that although the Brent forward curve has flattened slightly, December 2026 futures still remain above pre-conflict levels. De Haan warned against assuming falling gas prices indicate a swift recovery: “Until a formal agreement and significant shipment through the strait occur, gas prices will likely persist above $4 per gallon.”
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