As California approaches the June 2 primary for governor, voters appear evenly split among three main candidates, all seeking to replace Governor Gavin Newsom during a challenging period for both the state and the country. A poll conducted by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times and released Thursday, reveals that among likely voters, 25% support Democrat Xavier Becerra, a former Biden Cabinet secretary. Republican Steve Hilton, previously a Fox News commentator and British political strategist, receives 21%, while Democrat Tom Steyer, a billionaire hedge fund founder turned environmental activist, secures 19%.
These three candidates have emerged as front-runners, setting themselves apart from the broader field of 61 contenders. Becerra has made significant gains since March, rising from 5% to leading the pack. Meanwhile, others like Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, saw a decrease in support, falling to fourth place. Former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine experienced a decline, dropping to 7%.
Mark DiCamillo, the poll director, highlighted that predicting which candidates will secure the top two positions in the primary remains uncertain, especially with low voter turnout so far. Every registered Californian received a mail-in ballot, but many have yet to return them. Democratic voter turnout is currently lower than in previous primaries.
In demographics, Becerra holds a lead over Steyer among women and Latino voters, while Steyer is more popular among Black voters. Hilton finds favor among libertarians and in areas like Orange County and the Central Valley. Overall, 7% of voters remain undecided.
For the first time in over 25 years, the gubernatorial race in California lacks a clear front-runner. Notable names like former Vice President Kamala Harris and U.S. Senator Alex Padilla considered running but opted out, adding to the race’s slow momentum. Factors like President Trump’s immigration policies and recent wildfires have also affected the political landscape.
Recent events have refocused attention on the election. Former Representative Eric Swalwell withdrew after allegations of misconduct, allegations he denies. Tom Steyer has poured $212 million of personal funds into his campaign, breaking state records.
The race comes at a critical time for Californians, with upcoming cuts to federal healthcare funding and volatility in the state budget. Rising gas prices due to the U.S.-Iran conflict and a persistent affordability crisis are key voter concerns, alongside homelessness and public safety.
Voter priorities vary, with Democrats worrying about voting rights following a Supreme Court decision affecting minority representation. Republicans echo concerns of election integrity.
The primary will use California’s “jungle” system, advancing only the top two candidates to the general election, regardless of party. Although Democrats dominate registration, they fear a split vote could let Republicans Hilton and Bianco advance. Trump’s endorsement bolstered Hilton’s Republican support, with over a third of likely GOP voters saying it influenced their choice.
DiCamillo points out Hilton’s rise is atypical, as he relies less on traditional media. Nevertheless, about a third of voters lack a solid opinion on him.
This uncertainty led Democrats to urge weaker candidates to exit the race. Polls now show a small chance for two Democrats in the November election, impacting party turnout and Congressional control.
The poll surveyed 8,578 registered voters in California, conducted in English and Spanish, with a margin of error near 2 points.
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