Xi Jinping has made a significant investment in nurturing his relationship with President Donald Trump. This year has seen the two leaders engage in two summits, with plans to meet twice more, aiming to foster friendlier ties. Such diplomatic engagements have been beneficial to China, and a Democratic win in the midterm elections may disrupt this delicate balance with the United States. This relationship has allowed Beijing to subtly advance its global agenda.
While not everything tilts in China’s favor, the agreement with the White House to build a ‘constructive relationship of strategic stability’ has provided Xi with essential support to stabilize the Chinese economy and reorganize military leadership, as his tenure approaches its renewal. China has avoided commenting on the U.S. midterms, maintaining that it is a domestic affair; nonetheless, it likely favors outcomes that enable Trump to maintain control over the Republican Party.
Xi’s Calculated Approach
The initial Trump administration had severely strained U.S.-China relations, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving many skeptical about recovery possibilities. Despite the challenges, Xi has responded positively to Trump’s leadership diplomacy style, emphasizing personal engagement. This approach appears to have improved relations, demonstrated by state visits that have softened American sentiment toward China.
The strengthened ties with China have aided Trump in achieving his interests in nearby regions like Venezuela and Greenland; concurrently, the U.S. conflict with Iran serves as a distraction for Xi’s initiatives in the Indo-Pacific. China is familiar with Trump’s transactional diplomacy, preferring economic gains rather than focusing on Western ideals like human rights. An America-centric on the Western Hemisphere and less engaged globally suits China as it steps forward in international leadership roles.
Potential Risks for China
The current cooperative climate between Trump and Xi was established during their summit in Busan, South Korea, last year. They agreed to ease the tariff war with specific commitments, such as China’s purchasing of U.S. soybeans and reducing export constraints on rare earth metals.
While the U.S. views the Busan agreement primarily in trade terms, China perceives it as a strategic turning point. Chinese officials have emphasized that any U.S. sanctions would violate the consensus reached between Trump and Xi.
During negotiations in September to extend the Busan deal, China aimed for a multiyear extension potentially lasting until the end of Trump’s presidency in 2028. However, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent only extended it by two months, citing the forthcoming midterms as a time for reassessment.
Congressional Dynamics
Even if Democrats gain control of both chambers, the White House would still possess substantial executive power. However, Trump would likely face obstacles in implementing his foreign policy. Trump has dedicated efforts to maintain good relations with China to secure market access for U.S. businesses, yet a Democrat-dominated Congress might urge a stronger stance on human rights, including enhanced support for Taiwan.
Should Democrats control Congress, they may prevent federal funding for military interventions, such as those in Cuba and Iran, forcing Trump to reconsider his strategies. Additionally, opposition could limit Trump’s favored bargaining chips, including sanctions and trade agreements.
China’s Political Strategy
China recognizes the volatile landscape of U.S. politics, acknowledging that agreements with democratic governments are rarely permanent. Xi has sought to secure more time through scheduled summits with Trump at the APEC summit in Shenzhen and the upcoming G20 meeting in Miami. However, intense scrutiny by a Democrat-led Congress could hinder formal trade agreements.
“A Democratic victory in one or both chambers would change committee leadership, oversight, and the terms on which Trump must defend his agreements,” wrote Yilun Zhang, a researcher with the Institute for China-America Studies, a Beijing-funded think tank based in Washington, D.C.
Zhang further explained that changing leadership within Congress wouldn’t necessarily ease U.S.-China relations, as strategic competition remains a constant across party lines. Exceptionally, China remains prepared for a Democratic win, as domestic party conflicts in the U.S. could ultimately work to its advantage.
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